Investment analysts described Macau’s July casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) as “weak” against market expectations, as daily utilization rates likely slowed at the end of the month.
Macau’s casino GGR rose 5.1% month-on-month to MOP18.6 billion ($2.31 billion) in July, the Game Inspection Coordination Bureau, a local regulator, said on Thursday.
Deutsche Bank Securities’ Carlo Santarelli said in a note on Thursday that its July GGR results were up 1.7% per day compared to June.
“From 2013 to 2019, the average July sequential gain was +4.8% compared to June, so the 1.7% sequential gain per day was 310 basis points weaker than the historical trend,” Mr Santarelli said.
Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, also observed in a report on Thursday that the 5.1% month-over-month increase was “below historic averages – up from 9% to 10% – below expectations.”
“July started weak and ended weak,” Mr. Umansky said. “It’s a solid performance in the middle of the month.”
“By July 25, visitors averaged 95,000 per day, up 6.7% year-over-year. Thus, average game spending per visitor improved at a higher rate than GGR year-over-year, indicating continued premium performance and weakness in bass mass.”
The average daily GGR was MOP 600 million, “the second weakest month of the year, and June was the weakest,” according to the Seport analyst
Despite the weaker-than-expected performance in July, we expected sequential improvements in August.
Deutsche Bank forecast a GGR of just under $2.4 billion in August, “a sequential increase of 3.0% per day on a monthly basis.”
According to Mr Santarelli, the forecast “compares to a 2.1% daily sequential improvement in August compared to July for the period 2013 to 2019.”
In a note from Seaport, the analyst said he estimates the August GGR to be around $2.47 billion, “up 6.7% from July,” “over the historical average of 1% to 3% and over 15% from August 2023.”
“Both June and July were milder than originally expected, so August could be a test of the strength of the recovery,” Mr Umansky wrote.
“While recent crackdowns on currency/money movement in Macau and China may create negative short-term headwinds for the GGR, we do not expect the move to be a long-term issue,” he added. “However, this is likely to remain a limiting factor in August and potentially September.”
Paveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung, analysts at Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd, referred to China’s economic outlook for a second time in a note on Thursday after the July data, saying: “We think the July GGR could have dragged on due to weak visits to China, the impact of the European Cup [Euro 2024 football tournament] in the first half of July and tight controls.”
BY: 실시간 바카라사이트