Deutsche Bank Securities estimated Macau’s total casino gaming revenue (GGR) for March would be just US$2.42 billion, up about 5.7% month-over-month from its February MOP tally of $18.49 billion ($2.29 billion).

Still, Deutsche Bank’s GGR forecast for March “represents a sequential monthly drop of 2.2% per day,” Carlo Santarelli said in a note on Friday. That would still be better than “a sequential drop of 7.7% per day on average in March” compared to February, he added.

Deutsche Bank’s March forecast was “down 25.2%” compared with the same month in 2019, before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The agency now expects Macau’s GGR to reach about $71.5 billion in the first quarter of this year, up 65.0% year-over-year and 5.6% sequentially. The quarterly figure will be about 25.0% lower than the same period in 2019, it added.

In the first two months of 2024, Macao’s GGR is “7% above” Q4 2023 levels, JPMorgan Securities (Asia Pacific) said in a note on Friday.

“This suggests that first-quarter GGR may have grown +5% quarter-over-quarter, outperforming historic quarter-over-quarter seasonality,” DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li analysts wrote.

“Historically, March is 4% below the January/February GGR run rate,” they added.

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